Saturday 26 December 2015

Profit in Chaos

Oh dear.... I appear to have broken the market.

I may have mentioned elsewhere that one of the more frustrating aspects of trading in Eve is margin trading - with or without the 'help' of API backed apps. No doubt there are those that swear by this form of trading, and no doubt it has a valid place if you never leave the station.

What surprised me, when I started looking for things to trade is just how many bargains there are, if you spend the time looking.

Now what I am going to suggest is clearly in direct opposition to a certain macho attitude that pervades the game, in which to be successful, you have to have control - of in this case market price.

But what does that mean?

If I know that you will pay me a certain price, because you have set a buy order to buy this amount at that price, then sure you control the price - but equally so do I, if I can source the items at far less than you are paying. And let's say, for the sake of argument, that I can get them at 10 times less than the price you are willing to pay?

I will make 1000% per cent, and the buyer (who is using margin trading) will make @6-8% , assuming they can sell the item, and if they can't will soon run into escrow problems.

Hence it appears I have broken the market.

Yes true, in doing so, I am now in a position of not being able to sell immediately - which is a problem - but it has also offered the opportunity to vastly deflate my buying price, and up the amount I am willing to buy, because at this moment the item in question is practically worthless.

No doubt eventually the market will stabilize, and hopefully my knockdown price will allow margin traders in other markets to see my low wholesale price as a bargain - and equally I hope that no one notices the sudden market collapse and will blindly sell me stuff at a knock down price.

We shall see.

But the long and the short of it is, if you look around for bargains, there is money to be made.

peace:)

Tuesday 22 December 2015

Lower Middle Class Neurosis

Yeah so after doing my accounts, I do have more than a billion ISK in assets.... in fact quite a lot more than a billion.

Operation Croesus is in full swing, if everything goes as planned on Christmas Day, I should have a billion in cash.

Which raises the question question of - to plex or not to plex....

And if I do plex, should I use it to play for free, or train two characters?

Though the more pressing issue, and one that I can't seem to solve satisfactorily is what to do next.

My corp is functioning well, and making money - and in a sense it has achieved it's purpose of getting me a strong capital base to move forward from.

So one option is to split off one of the characters and send them out to another corp, possibly a training corp of some kind, to a) gain experience and b) make in-game contacts. The most obvious choice is the fighty character, as in the short term they are the character that will be getting least attention with regard to training, and the plan is focus any mission running on research - so they will be getting less game time.

But on the other hand I could simply keep going, run another Operation Creosus type deal, and in three weeks have another billion or so - possibly quicker if the trading continues to grow at the current rate.

Plus I wouldn't have to deal with the issue of finding the right corp, and being told what to do, and this and that..

At which point, I find myself wondering if I am playing to plex or plexing to play - and do I really want to plex at all?

Isn't plex just another of those things with-in the game that have gained an inflated importance because of a meme?

I guess it's a nice problem to have.

And a first world problem at that. I certainly couldn't have imagined I would be griping about it barely a few weeks ago when the idea of having a billion ISK was little more than the kind of dream one has that somehow you will be picked from the crowd and scare the winning goal in a cup final.

peace:)

Monday 21 December 2015

The Case for Slow Learners

I was doing my accounts, and noticed that I have passed a rather significant milestone.

As I now have corp assets totaling more than a billion ISK (not including ships, or cash and assets owned by the characters)

This am am told is  hard for a newb, and given that it has taken two and half months there is some truth in this truism. However, had I stayed in one place, and focused on a project, I suspect I would have got there sooner (the current position has been built up over @3weeks from a starting capital of about 30million isk (not inclusding ships). But this is quibbling, since finding a place, and organizing yourself to do business is one of the key skills in Eve, that is rarely, if ever, acknowledged.

I mention accounts, as this has been the key factor in growth. Simply allowing me to see how much I have, which parts of the business need to be focused, and which part dropped, has been invaluable.

Learning to use the divisions of the corporate wallet has also been invaluable - and one of the key changes I would suggest is allowing players not holding corp responsibility to have two or three wallet divisions to allow them to set money aside, or as a trading account, to pay bills, etc

Which brings me to the issue of skills

Finding a place in the universe to establish a base is a skill. Setting up a spreadsheet (back of a fag packet or whatever) to keep track of what part of your activity is making the most money, is a skill. Managing your money is a skill.

Yet none of them are in the skill queue and cannot be trained.

There are countless over skills within the game that are important but not in the skill queue - knowing the rules of combat is one, learning to use bookmarks another, not allowing yourself to be provoked by thieves, or griefers, or gankers etc

All of these are skills far more important than whether you have tactical shield management at 2 or 4.

But they are not something CCP can specifically teach you, and often they are something you can only learn if you get your ship blown up - which has happened to me a number of times (mainly because I didn't bother to learn the skill of not going into the faction space of factions I have run missions killing - oh and the proper use of auto-pilot - and some other things I am embarrassed to mention for fear of revealing my noobness)

Which is partly why the idea that new players need accelerated learning, or can't do anything if they don't have 5million skill points, is rather simplistic.

In two and a half months, I have acquired something like 3 1/2 million skill points, across the three characters - the actual figure is slightly more, because I got given some for various reasons by CCP - reporting bugs etc

As they are shared the points across the the characters none of them are even close to the 5million figure that supposedly makes them viable. Yet because I have focused the training - I have one that handles business and diplomacy, a miner/industrial character who is about to start getting into research, and a fighty type (they all have good PI skills (if I can be bothered to get back into that)) - they all do far more than they would had I attempted to combine the same attributes into a single 'main' - and none of them fly around in blingy ships, because I am in no hurry to 'upgrade' - preferring to keep them in ships I don't care if I lose, and don't have a particular e-peen attachment to.

Had I done so, I would no doubt have a main that would be on something like 4million skill points - mostly combat - would be flying a battleship, running level 4 missions, and plagued by an over-inflated opinion of herself/himself. What he/she wouldn't have, is anything like a billion ISK.

I  know this, because this is precisely the situation I got myself into on every other occasion I have played Eve,

And it's a position that can be easily be painted into a a corner... by for instance a war-dec.... which in turn can easily lead to saying 'fuck this stoopid game.' and quitting.

Speeding the training time, only speeds up this inevitable position, where you are sort of, kind of, on the brink of getting into Tech 2 ships, and you are sort of kind of this or sort of kind of that... but what you are not is in any real position to start effectively producing improved products via research, using a good supply of BPO's maximized for time and material efficiencies, or building a firm understanding of the market, or indeed what and from where you should be sourcing products to get the best returns, etc

Because the chances are you will be in a battleship, running level 4 missions and telling anyone who will listen how you are looking to move into PVP as soon as you gt a Tech 2 ship... quite how you will pay for this, is not clear.... but it's going to happen soon... because there is not a poorly fitted mission rat that take you on.... especially since you just learned long range targeting 3....

Which is not to say I wouldn't like faster training - after all back in the day you used to have it by training the education/learning skill first and then using the modifiers to speed everything else up - sort of kind of, because initially you were not really speeding the training up, as so much time was spent earning to learn.

But it can only be of any use if at the same time there is an appreciation of the skills you actually need are not in the training queue, or that often the best plan needs the extended training to time to get the money and materials in place to best make use of the newly trained skill.

Which I realise is somewhat of an abstract concept, and gamers being gamers like to deal in 'facts'.

All I know is that I have currently more money, and more assets in the game than I have ever had in any of the previous times I have played, and I doubt any of the characters have half the skill points of my 'main' had on those occasions - and by having the money, and the resources, I am able to do far more with far less skills

peace)

Wednesday 16 December 2015

Something and Nobody

I don't want it to come across on this blog that I am negative about Eve.

I wouldn't play it if I didn't like it. And when I no longer like it, I will stop playing and writing on this blog.

Back in my day, you had to type in games from a magazine. And, invariably you would have to go in search of gosub that didn't, or amend a value that broke the game by returning infinity just at the point of victory.

So to find myself occasionally catching my breath at the beauty of my ship passing a temperate world with a cyclone at the south pole, is well worth the subscription fee.

However.... isn't there always an however.... I then find myself wondering why CCP don't make more of the game.

And then I heard the latest episode of crossing zebras, in which reference was made to the CCP forums being full of 'nobodies within the game' and the tinfoil hat podcast was equally scathing about players using the forum to provide feedback and ideas to CCP.

What was interesting was that after damning the nobodies on the CCP official forum, they then went onto say that they didn't read the forums.

Which kind of explains why they weren't aware that rather a lot of those posting are what in gaming lingo is refered to as 'bitter vets', essentially moaning that thet actually have to play some sort game to do things, and wouldn't it be better if this was all just automated? Or I am not having fun and therefore the solution is to nerf high-sec - presumably because they are 'nobody within the game' - and therefore what does it matter?

And of course it doesn't mater, as CCP have repeatedly shown - with numerous daft changes to high-sec that have not achieved it's stated purpose, and if anything have achieved the contrary.

The one that springs to mind is custom houses. The dev blog that announced the change to player owned custom houses claimed that the move would make for exciting high sec wars, and new PvP opportunities, and all the usual guff CCP come out with when they have run out of ideas. Yet instead from what I can see there are a whole lot of people collecting 17.5% of nothing - and occasionally someone (like myself) will experiment with PI, until they get fed up with the idea of paying a percentage of their profit to someone for no other reason than at an arbitrary date they happened to take advantage of CCP's ill thought out plan to bring 'content' to high-sec.

Yes I could declare war. I could try and negotiate a better deal. Or I could just take the path of least resistance, shut down the colonies and leave the planet to be another high sec planet without content, interest or income - though they do look pretty when you fly past them.

But then CCP were taking the path of least resistance in making the change to custom houses in the first place.

And in a sense CCP were dealing with the problem of 'somebodies within the game' breaking infinity....

but... I feel operation Croesus calling, so I shall leave this here and come back to my theme of a living universe at a later date.

Oh and while I think abut it - and this really will upset the 'somebodies in the game' - a simple way of improving game play and making PvP fun, would be to introduce a random element int he form of critical hits - with a chance that a lucky hit explodes the ship.

That should keep the meta-gamers steaming - and possibly not logging in....

Which curious, since the movers and shakers that appear to have the most influence on the game, apparently are the one's who play the least.

Which perhaps explains why they don't read the forums - as you have to an active account.

peace)

Sunday 13 December 2015

How Much

The release of of new modules has offered an opportunity to observe the workings of the market.

It should be noted that each of the trade hubs in Eve has a very different character. And observation of the pricing in these markets. can offer the skillful trader insight of where in the chain they can best enter the market to maximize profit.

However, what happens when the module has no price?

And indeed, and perhaps worse, has no listing on Eve Central or Eve Markets to offer informed guidance as to who many of the new items have been sold and at what price. The market listings within Eve does offer some information.

At which point we return to the character of the trade hubs.As it was interesting to note the initial pricing. In Jita the items were immediately offered for 50million ISK, and then generally priced downwards as more traders entered the market. Whereas in Amarr the pricing was set at 1million ISK and barely changed over the four or five days that it took for Jita to trade downwards to the current price of around 2million ISK

I suspect this will be the eventual price as the buy orders are now offering 1.5million ISK for regional trading in Jita - effectively cutting off the supply and dampening down any opportunity to make 'real' money.

I say real money, because it was possible in the first few days to buy at 100k and sell for 12million, and until the regional inflated buy order price cut off cheap supplies, 4-5million was a viable price in Jita, with traders selling all of their stocks.

Which logically would suggest that long term the item should be valued at around 4million, but I doubt it.

I baled out of the market yesterday, having made a very tidy profit.

Though I do find myself wondering why when you can buy items at ten times lower that the new buying price, and sell at two and three times the current selling price, does it make any sense to settle for doubling you money, and in all likelihood the typical Jita trading model of making perhaps 10% - if you are lucky.

It makes even less sense when the item still doesn't have an estimated sale price, is loot-able in level 1 and 2 missions and because of the nature and mechanics of the module is only going to be bought by people who aren't that worried about price in the first place.

No doubt one of the many Apps, that surround the market, lie at the root of this. I notice they are all the vogue, and many people appear to think they are useful - and no doubt they are if you want to believe in the myth of the 'five-minute-a-day' trader alt many you a billionaire over night.

The good thing about these Apps is that they offer opportunities to make 'real' money, as they do not take into account the psychology of pricing, and the magic behind the number 33.

peace:)

Saturday 12 December 2015

In Praise of the Learning Curve

I've been listening to a number of pod-casts. And one of the constant themes is 'new bro's' - how to get them, how to keep them, etc.
Part of this monologue - (it rarely reaches the point of discussion) - is the issue of skills.

Supposedly all new players want to jump into a battleship at the earliest opportunity (or a mining barge/freighter, if they are that way inclined) - and, apparently, the way skills work in Eve prevents them from doing this: and therefore the players go off and play Farmville on their phone.

Which has an element of truth, but is equal parts total cobblers.

Coupled with this is an assumption that the 'vets' somehow know that the 'newbs' (and perhaps the noobs as well) want to be like them.

Ok leave aside for a moment one of the major problems with Eve, which is both it's major strength and weakness when compared to other MMO's - namely the way in which the security status of system doesn't really offer any indication as to the likelihood of getting attacked - or indeed of PVP occurring.

I was a little shocked, and disappointed, to see that hanging around the academy were a number of what can only be described as idiots in cruisers, battlecruisers and even a battleship, who passed the time issuing challenges to duel (and worse, dropping cans and suggesting that it was fine to open them and then shooting up the Ibis without the formality of a duel). I asked one of them why they were doing it, It seems they were required by their corp to get a certain number of kills and also to recruit a new player, (presumably someone who thought this 'cool'), in order to progress onto other duties in the corp.

And CCP aren't about to do anything about this, as this declaration from CCP Falcon makes clear.

I am not suggesting they should, even if the tone of CCP Falcon's missive is frankly a bit daft. As I agree that ganking is part of the game - even if the underlying mechanics of it make no sense what-so-ever (rather like bounties)

But as I said, if we ignore the elephant in the room - well actually we can't - because that elephant is not alone, their are a whole host of pachyderms that inform this whole question relating to new players. These include 'the community', various memes and tropes that are taken as gospel, some of the stuff on eve university, and various other bits and pieces that if you as someone coming into Eve without any real knowledge of the game will burn you up, spit you out and have you playing Farmville on your phone (or worse posthumously feeding 'the community' on reddit).

Which not to say that the conformist nature of much of this 'help' lacks any merit.

I would simply advise a new player to try things for them-self.

A massive part of this game is discovering how things work, and making your own mark on what is deeply fascinating and complex multi-verse.

Hence why the notion that new players should start with more skill points so they can get into a battleship, or fit this module to make them 'useful' is simply a reflection of CCP Falcon's ill judged comment, and perhaps a sign of how much new players are required to love their captors.

Hang on a minute.... meow meow meow.... I include this partly for the person in the rookie channel who in answer to just about any question would reply 'trust no one in Eve.'

Which is fine advice if you take it from the point-of-view of 'why are they saying/doing/offering this?' And by answering this, you may well find the answer you were looking for (or indeed realize that mining is free)

I'd suggest looking for patterns that you can exploit. This can be in the skill tree, on the market, on the map, in combat or whatever.

One pattern you could look at, is why CCP doesn't sort out the security status of systems, and the way this interacts with players and NPC's, in a logical, intuitive and rational manner: may it, perhaps, lie in the background of the devs? (Which frankly would be of more use than the pointlessly annoying opportunity thing - and would benefit the wider player base, not just new players)

I use this as an example of a possible pattern, because the one I was going to use relates to a loophole in the way practically every utube video advises playing the market.

So fellow new players let us rejoice in our lack of skills, and get a little thrill whenever the pinger informs us of a new skill trained, with the accompanying little shaft of excitement that our ship flies a little better or we can experiment in this area or that area of the game.

peace)

Friday 11 December 2015

The Story So Far

Oscar Wilde once remarked that 'a cynic is someone who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing'.
No doubt he had just been repeatedly 0.01 price sniped in Jita,. Or perhaps he was reflecting why the Shield Booster I only fetches 1 ISK in Amarr when the estimated price quite clearly states that it is worth 5000 ISk or whatever.

Or perhaps Oscar Wilde didn't play Eve.... obviously....

As background, I first played Eve in about 2005. Since then I have rage-quit, over one thing or another, about five times - I say rage-quit as a short hand for not playing, as in fairness I have only actually rage quit once; the other times I stopped playing were due to boredom, life changes, completely cocking up my training and just... well... meh...

But now I'm back in outer space, I just warped in find the salvage drones had dumped the salvage out of place....

So here is a general view on what I have been doing.

From the outset I decided to break a number of cardinal rules.

The first is that I don't have a main character. Instead I have adopted an approach, whereby I am training the three characters at roughly the same speed depending on what it is I am doing at the time. And so far this approach is working well.

The next cardinal rule I'm breaking, is that although I am using a spreadsheet, I am not obsessively micromanaging everything. Not am I using any of the 'useful tools' that tell me - sorry 'help me' - to cost out my time, training schedule, industrial jobs, or trading activity. All the spreadsheet tells me is how much I have in fixed assets, liquid assets, and reserve... and of course if I made a profit or loss on the day.

This approach ties in nicely with developing the characters together, especially as I have a corp.

It's all a bit of a socialist Utopia - Peter robs Paul, Paul robs Peter and the cumulative effect is measured in how the corps is doing - which in turn pays back to John, Paul, George and Ringo.

Ostensibly the corp is industrial. Though at present very little is being done of a traditionally industrial nature, due to Operation Croesus. This being a top secret operation, I am not at liberty to divulge the details. And besides, I quickly learned that tech 1 manufacturing is not a path to riches; and the minerals are best stockpiled until such time as I have the research skills to create more advanced blueprints, and tech 2.

For a time I was pretty heavily into PI, turning in a tidy sum each day. But for the time being that has been put on the back burner, the colonies shut down, and the workers - well I don't know what happened to them. It had reached the stage where to grow it needed investment I didn't want to give it, and it wasn't of a large enough scale to make it worth the time and effort it required.

So that out of the way, I can move onto 'stuff'...

peace:)